My last post had some pictures to remind us that we’re not in Kansas anymore - Lord only knows where the hell we actually are, but we need to tap the red shoes and get back home again.
Thanks Norman - yes, it does get a bit overwhelming. I think we're in for a fight, so it's important to do the occasional re-charge. It's clear that things have moved way beyond just "health" and "science" now. Not sure where we're heading, but I don't trust the navigators one jot.
The Telegraph chart made me LOL. Good for them. Reminds me of a graphic I saw on another paper's website that purported to show how covid spreads using a bunch of little dots that bumped into each other and changed color. If people can look at such things and think, "Brilliant! Now I understand viral transmission," no wonder they consider themselves experts on the Glorious Goo because they read about how messenger RNA works in the Times.
I guess they have to "model" because if they presented actual data (as in the rest of the charts you show), they couldn't claim the sky is falling and that the only cure is the GG.
I quite like the gas molecules bouncing around in a box explanation - as a very simplistic way of understanding how things can look exponential to begin with, but then slow down quite drastically (so a good way to appreciate why community immunity helps a lot).
But you're right - it is only a very simplistic 1st order approximation model.
I saw this morning that in the UK and the USA "they" are trying to pass laws against protesting, peaceful or otherwise. What seems to be coming upon us all is what has me fearful and anxiety ridden. God save us all!
I think they want us scared - either of the virus, or of them
Don't know why they are doing this - but you are not alone, and many more people are waking up now after nearly 2 years of this absolute freakshow. Stay strong and have hope!
Last graph seems a little sticky (gooey?) as far as interpretation is concerned. The higher gradient in numbers for the vaxxed probably also reflects age- and ill health-selection; i.e., those resorting to vaccination are, with little doubt, relatively more feeble (and anxious) to begin with, and so are more prone to die than the few remaining non-vaxxed. Also, acquired immunity for this self-selected (and doctor-selected) group is generally harder to establish (T-cells? T-cells? Where are my T-cells?), and, admittedly, the added stress of demanding a immune response by vaccination probably doesn't help this relatively feeble group of people sail along unharmed, either. (I think I recall the author of this last chart in this post making some of these same qualifications about this particular chart of his).
I'm only a free subscriber to eugyppius' work - so didn't get to see his comments (if I paid for every person doing great work these days I'd be broke).
However, I would quibble with the claim that the effect is due to a selection of a healthier, less anxious, population here That selection would not be strong either - many very healthy people have received the jab, and I doubt whether only healthy, non-anxious people have not received the jab). I would agree there may be some effect, but I very much doubt whether it could account for the very significant difference in gradient we're seeing here.
I'm going to stick with the stickiness, for now, on this last chart - I don't think we're seeing (mostly) a sample bias here.
Me, I think because the death rate with regard to spike proteins (of all origins) is heavily age-biased and health-biased, wherever the unhealthy/aged shift their weight move their population sample to very heavily biases the sample. Your own cumulative frequency graphs in the current post support this point-of-view about the sample weight of the inform, I think.
I am not a pay-subscriber to eugyppius either for the same reason as you, so it may have been someone else using the same sort of graph who made this disclaimer I more or less recalled and repeated (el gato malo? Crawford?).
It must still be Sunday where you live, given the pun in the title of your posting. All the more literate adult males I know bleed puns right and left on Sundays. Probably the influence of an earlier virus.
Keep these coming. Your calm, scientific and amusing approach helps enormously. I still struggle at containing my incredulity that people can’t see what is so obvious.
Thank you - although it is getting harder to keep calm haha
It's weird to me too - that so many people can't see through the distortions and exaggerations - and let's face it, the downright lies. I agree with Prof Desmet on this - there's definitely some kind of mass 'hypnosis' going on
It is indeed getting a lot harder. Have just cancelled going to a concert this evening as I don’t have the fight in me today to stand my ground. The mass hypnosis is what alerted me to all this in the first place. Having two degrees in psychology, statistical analysis and qualifications in hypnotherapy and NLP I noticed the hypnotic language being used during those live news briefings. The only way to get to the other side is calmly and assuredly, so please keep your very amusing thoughts coming and I’ll keep sharing them!
The difference in gradient might be due to confounding: both vaxx rate and infection fatality rate increase with age.
That notwithstanding, very good points! A few slightly technical remarks:
1. What is considered a model in public discourse would be called a scenario in financial risk management (about which I know a thing or two). The second crucial component of a model that tries to capture some of the uncertainty in the world is the choice of risk measure. Create many scenarios, assign probabilities, build a distribution, and read off a risk measure (such as 95% quantile, typically for market risk, or 99.9% quantile, typically for credit risk).
2. The pick-2020 quiz would turn out similarly for Germany, even after you consider the ageing population. If you apply the age-stratified death rates 2011-2019 to the population as of end of 2019, the real 2020 will be right in the middle of the fake 2020s.
3. Whatever the actual IFRs, the fact that they increase exponentially with age should have serious implications on vaccination strategies (in particular, when to stop vaccinating; I played with this on my substack: https://cm27874.substack.com/p/credit-for-covid).
5. If you repeat the quiz (2.) for, say, all the monthly October data 2011-2021 for Germany, even after removing Covid deaths, October 2021 will clearly stand out:
2011 : 71825
2012 : 72543
2013 : 71780
2014 : 72597
2015 : 74854
2016 : 76001
2017 : 75229
2018 : 74039
2019 : 77006
2020 : 79781 (thereof 1488 Covid)
2021 : 83699 (thereof 2314 Covid)
On Tuesday, data for November will be published by destatis, and I predict them to be even more worrying.
I'm still mulling over that last graph - it's too stark a difference in gradient for me to easily explain it (and looking at the vaccine uptake figures from UKHSA). I might be wrong, but I think you're looking at some whopping big confounders to explain the difference - and I'm not sure that's plausible.
I will sort it out (eventually)
Some good stuff on the German situation you have there too
I'll gladly admit that I'm not sure if I'm understanding correctly, but could some of the extra deaths in 2021 be due to ADE? Dr. Malone, who invented the mRNA process, talks about this becoming a problem and in a recent video I saw he said he sees this starting. --- If I'm way off, I'm sorry for the bother.
Not at all - I don't understand immunology well enough to be able to comment on ADE. But something is really, really wrong - there's a huge mismatch between claimed "safe and effective" and real-world data. Vaccination doesn't seem to be making things significantly better. What sort of vaccination is it if you still have to wear masks, test, and distance etc? And what sort of vaccine is it that doesn't protect you against unvaccinated people?
It's unfathomably weird - but also massively concerning
that 20 year all cause mortality graph is truly mind-shattering. Just wondering: What does "age adjusted" mean regarding all-cause mortality and why is age-adjustment needed?
Excellent and very entertaining, the way that evidence should be presented and the ridiculous made apparent!
(I have some reading to catch up on, I noticed. I literally had to take a break from everything COVID for a few days.)
Thanks Norman - yes, it does get a bit overwhelming. I think we're in for a fight, so it's important to do the occasional re-charge. It's clear that things have moved way beyond just "health" and "science" now. Not sure where we're heading, but I don't trust the navigators one jot.
The Telegraph chart made me LOL. Good for them. Reminds me of a graphic I saw on another paper's website that purported to show how covid spreads using a bunch of little dots that bumped into each other and changed color. If people can look at such things and think, "Brilliant! Now I understand viral transmission," no wonder they consider themselves experts on the Glorious Goo because they read about how messenger RNA works in the Times.
I guess they have to "model" because if they presented actual data (as in the rest of the charts you show), they couldn't claim the sky is falling and that the only cure is the GG.
I quite like the gas molecules bouncing around in a box explanation - as a very simplistic way of understanding how things can look exponential to begin with, but then slow down quite drastically (so a good way to appreciate why community immunity helps a lot).
But you're right - it is only a very simplistic 1st order approximation model.
Solid stuff, that, Rudolph. Thankyou. Great point on gradients.
Thank you - I may not be right on every point I make, but I would claim I get it much more correct, more often, than the media haha
I saw this morning that in the UK and the USA "they" are trying to pass laws against protesting, peaceful or otherwise. What seems to be coming upon us all is what has me fearful and anxiety ridden. God save us all!
I think they want us scared - either of the virus, or of them
Don't know why they are doing this - but you are not alone, and many more people are waking up now after nearly 2 years of this absolute freakshow. Stay strong and have hope!
Last graph seems a little sticky (gooey?) as far as interpretation is concerned. The higher gradient in numbers for the vaxxed probably also reflects age- and ill health-selection; i.e., those resorting to vaccination are, with little doubt, relatively more feeble (and anxious) to begin with, and so are more prone to die than the few remaining non-vaxxed. Also, acquired immunity for this self-selected (and doctor-selected) group is generally harder to establish (T-cells? T-cells? Where are my T-cells?), and, admittedly, the added stress of demanding a immune response by vaccination probably doesn't help this relatively feeble group of people sail along unharmed, either. (I think I recall the author of this last chart in this post making some of these same qualifications about this particular chart of his).
Thanks Larry,
I'm only a free subscriber to eugyppius' work - so didn't get to see his comments (if I paid for every person doing great work these days I'd be broke).
However, I would quibble with the claim that the effect is due to a selection of a healthier, less anxious, population here That selection would not be strong either - many very healthy people have received the jab, and I doubt whether only healthy, non-anxious people have not received the jab). I would agree there may be some effect, but I very much doubt whether it could account for the very significant difference in gradient we're seeing here.
I'm going to stick with the stickiness, for now, on this last chart - I don't think we're seeing (mostly) a sample bias here.
Me, I think because the death rate with regard to spike proteins (of all origins) is heavily age-biased and health-biased, wherever the unhealthy/aged shift their weight move their population sample to very heavily biases the sample. Your own cumulative frequency graphs in the current post support this point-of-view about the sample weight of the inform, I think.
I am not a pay-subscriber to eugyppius either for the same reason as you, so it may have been someone else using the same sort of graph who made this disclaimer I more or less recalled and repeated (el gato malo? Crawford?).
It must still be Sunday where you live, given the pun in the title of your posting. All the more literate adult males I know bleed puns right and left on Sundays. Probably the influence of an earlier virus.
I love puns - I should probably have a day OFF from them on Sunday!
Here's an example of the sort of thing I love (sent to me by my daughter)
Why does the Norwegian Navy put a bar code on their battleships?
So they can Scandinavian
Keep these coming. Your calm, scientific and amusing approach helps enormously. I still struggle at containing my incredulity that people can’t see what is so obvious.
Thank you - although it is getting harder to keep calm haha
It's weird to me too - that so many people can't see through the distortions and exaggerations - and let's face it, the downright lies. I agree with Prof Desmet on this - there's definitely some kind of mass 'hypnosis' going on
It is indeed getting a lot harder. Have just cancelled going to a concert this evening as I don’t have the fight in me today to stand my ground. The mass hypnosis is what alerted me to all this in the first place. Having two degrees in psychology, statistical analysis and qualifications in hypnotherapy and NLP I noticed the hypnotic language being used during those live news briefings. The only way to get to the other side is calmly and assuredly, so please keep your very amusing thoughts coming and I’ll keep sharing them!
The difference in gradient might be due to confounding: both vaxx rate and infection fatality rate increase with age.
That notwithstanding, very good points! A few slightly technical remarks:
1. What is considered a model in public discourse would be called a scenario in financial risk management (about which I know a thing or two). The second crucial component of a model that tries to capture some of the uncertainty in the world is the choice of risk measure. Create many scenarios, assign probabilities, build a distribution, and read off a risk measure (such as 95% quantile, typically for market risk, or 99.9% quantile, typically for credit risk).
2. The pick-2020 quiz would turn out similarly for Germany, even after you consider the ageing population. If you apply the age-stratified death rates 2011-2019 to the population as of end of 2019, the real 2020 will be right in the middle of the fake 2020s.
3. Whatever the actual IFRs, the fact that they increase exponentially with age should have serious implications on vaccination strategies (in particular, when to stop vaccinating; I played with this on my substack: https://cm27874.substack.com/p/credit-for-covid).
5. If you repeat the quiz (2.) for, say, all the monthly October data 2011-2021 for Germany, even after removing Covid deaths, October 2021 will clearly stand out:
2011 : 71825
2012 : 72543
2013 : 71780
2014 : 72597
2015 : 74854
2016 : 76001
2017 : 75229
2018 : 74039
2019 : 77006
2020 : 79781 (thereof 1488 Covid)
2021 : 83699 (thereof 2314 Covid)
On Tuesday, data for November will be published by destatis, and I predict them to be even more worrying.
Thanks cm
I'm still mulling over that last graph - it's too stark a difference in gradient for me to easily explain it (and looking at the vaccine uptake figures from UKHSA). I might be wrong, but I think you're looking at some whopping big confounders to explain the difference - and I'm not sure that's plausible.
I will sort it out (eventually)
Some good stuff on the German situation you have there too
I'll gladly admit that I'm not sure if I'm understanding correctly, but could some of the extra deaths in 2021 be due to ADE? Dr. Malone, who invented the mRNA process, talks about this becoming a problem and in a recent video I saw he said he sees this starting. --- If I'm way off, I'm sorry for the bother.
Not at all - I don't understand immunology well enough to be able to comment on ADE. But something is really, really wrong - there's a huge mismatch between claimed "safe and effective" and real-world data. Vaccination doesn't seem to be making things significantly better. What sort of vaccination is it if you still have to wear masks, test, and distance etc? And what sort of vaccine is it that doesn't protect you against unvaccinated people?
It's unfathomably weird - but also massively concerning
Just for the fun of it: November death data for Germany:
2011 : 71950
2012 : 72469
2013 : 70164
2014 : 73722
2015 : 72144
2016 : 77050
2017 : 74987
2018 : 74762
2019 : 78378
2020 : 85989 (thereof 8591 Covid)
2021 : 92295 (thereof 4116 Covid)
that 20 year all cause mortality graph is truly mind-shattering. Just wondering: What does "age adjusted" mean regarding all-cause mortality and why is age-adjustment needed?
Thank you - the feedback is really appreciated
Hilarious article title....still laughing.