I flunked statistics twice, I know there are paradoxes and one must be careful with the data, but why is it that ordinary people cannot see that the more you vaxx, the more cases rise? For whatever reason, they have to be asking themselves why is this?
I've no idea what, or how, "normal" people think anymore.
The more data I look at - the more questions that arise. Of course I may be missing something in some things - getting right-royally Simpsoned every now and then, but I'm pretty certain I'm not getting EVERYTHING wrong
Latest news about "normal" people: today there was a fire alarm at my kids' school (nothing serious in the end, but you know that only later, of course). It was during a break so almost all pupils were outside. The teachers then have the duty to walk around the site (I repeat: OUTSIDE) and count their class. One teacher refused to do so because Covid. Better let some of the little bastards burn than get a cough.
That's just sad. I don't believe there's anywhere high enough that they won't be able to do harm. --- The higher they go the more they influence, or demand, underlings do the same reckless/detrimental things they already have done.
You are getting nothing wrong. Although my idiocy about stats is not re-assuring. But even my pea brain knows that YOU are not wrong. You know all the stat traps, but still you are right. Do NOT doubt yourself. You have more smarts in your little finger...
Don't beat yourself up about stats and probabilities - they are notoriously difficult. Even fabulously gifted genius-level mathematicians get this stuff wrong too. There's one famous example known as the "Monty Hall" problem where one such hugely respected and brilliant mathematician got it completely wrong.
Statistics are a minefield all of themselves. Whenever a newspaper reports "studies show . . . twice as likely . . ." on whatever topic - you need to press that big red alarm bell and read with EXTREME scepticism.
Similarly with "experts" (including people like me, although I'm not an expert in stats). Be sceptical - always.
But most normal people have been so dumbed down and brainwashed by the MSM and their cell phones, that it is easier to let someone else think for them. Me, I prefer people like you who think for themselves. I think it will be a long time before the "good germans" realize what they have done.
The problem is that everything connected with this pandemic is in a grey zone we human beings are simply not made for. We prefer "It's a lion -> climb a tree" or "It's a pig -> eat it".
- The virus is not completely harmless but it is also not devastatingly deadly.
- The vaccines are not useless but their use is also very limited. Same for other measures such as masks and lockdowns.
- People are not dropping dead all around you because of vaccine side effects but they can not be ignored either.
- Government responses are authoritarian but they will not shoot you if you don't take a vaccine or refuse to comply elsewhere.
Competent humans are fully capable of making reasoned, rational judgments about non-binary choices. The problem is that "our" societies no longer encourage the development of this type of thinking.
I agree; as invididuals we have some capacity for non-binary decision-making. My lion/pig examples were bad because they suggested indivudal level. I was thinking more about problems that manifest themselves only statistically, at population level.
Unfortunately the average person is virtually completely innumerate. If you have worked with college students at all recently you will find it's extremely common for undergraduate students to be completely unable to do even basic math (add/subtract/multiply/divide). These are college students, so presumably smarter and more educated than most.
This is, sadly, very true. The number of astonishing things I've seen from the Science and Engineering students is, itself, astonishing.
What are we to make of the student sitting a Master's exam in advanced maths techniques, who typed the following into their calculator "7 x 1 = "?
I personally witnessed this when I was proctoring.
Or the students who will type a list of things to multiply together into their calculator with one of them being zero. (eg 100 x 43 x 34.5 x 0 x 43.65 x 12)
It's weird. My own view is that the overuse and over-reliance on tools like calculators have had a really detrimental effect on our ability to think. I suspect a similar thing is happening with our current societal lust for immediacy and stimulation via screens.
As one of the people I follow (and enjoy immensely) on Twitter says in her byline, "Looks like only 6 of us paid attention in stats 101." Pretty sure even fewer have ever even heard of our buddy, Pareto!
I know the answer. Well, at least I know the answer someone well-versed in the new vaccine religion will give you: it's because of Delta and because it's so much worse than what we were dealing with last year. And the vaccines also aren't to blame because, well who could have predicted Delta happening?... Anways, I don't know how correct, or how false that assessment is. But could be worth looking into
The feeling that the Pareto Principle (when applied to manifestations of resistance) could come back to bite our overlords arses, is just about the only thing which keeps me going most days tbh
Sir! We cacti appreciate to be called blessed, but the connection to Pfizer stings.
Keep up your style. Makes my day!
Oh, and the Pareto Principle converges to scapegoat when the number of high-performing individuals approaches one.
My all-time favourite insult involves the humble cactus :
"I've met some pricks in my time, but you, Sir, are a fucking cactus"
Thank-you for pointing out the scapegoat part. It's always the fault of the person doing the work, that the work is not getting done.
I flunked statistics twice, I know there are paradoxes and one must be careful with the data, but why is it that ordinary people cannot see that the more you vaxx, the more cases rise? For whatever reason, they have to be asking themselves why is this?
I've no idea what, or how, "normal" people think anymore.
The more data I look at - the more questions that arise. Of course I may be missing something in some things - getting right-royally Simpsoned every now and then, but I'm pretty certain I'm not getting EVERYTHING wrong
Latest news about "normal" people: today there was a fire alarm at my kids' school (nothing serious in the end, but you know that only later, of course). It was during a break so almost all pupils were outside. The teachers then have the duty to walk around the site (I repeat: OUTSIDE) and count their class. One teacher refused to do so because Covid. Better let some of the little bastards burn than get a cough.
Ooooo, that one needs to be fired. Press that button hard, parents!
Naaa, here in Germany, teachers are state officials (Beamte). Can not be fired, only promoted upwards, to some place where they can do no harm.
That's just sad. I don't believe there's anywhere high enough that they won't be able to do harm. --- The higher they go the more they influence, or demand, underlings do the same reckless/detrimental things they already have done.
You are getting nothing wrong. Although my idiocy about stats is not re-assuring. But even my pea brain knows that YOU are not wrong. You know all the stat traps, but still you are right. Do NOT doubt yourself. You have more smarts in your little finger...
Don't beat yourself up about stats and probabilities - they are notoriously difficult. Even fabulously gifted genius-level mathematicians get this stuff wrong too. There's one famous example known as the "Monty Hall" problem where one such hugely respected and brilliant mathematician got it completely wrong.
Statistics are a minefield all of themselves. Whenever a newspaper reports "studies show . . . twice as likely . . ." on whatever topic - you need to press that big red alarm bell and read with EXTREME scepticism.
Similarly with "experts" (including people like me, although I'm not an expert in stats). Be sceptical - always.
I was born innately skeptical. Unfortunately, I was a sore trial to my mother.
But most normal people have been so dumbed down and brainwashed by the MSM and their cell phones, that it is easier to let someone else think for them. Me, I prefer people like you who think for themselves. I think it will be a long time before the "good germans" realize what they have done.
The problem is that everything connected with this pandemic is in a grey zone we human beings are simply not made for. We prefer "It's a lion -> climb a tree" or "It's a pig -> eat it".
- The virus is not completely harmless but it is also not devastatingly deadly.
- The vaccines are not useless but their use is also very limited. Same for other measures such as masks and lockdowns.
- People are not dropping dead all around you because of vaccine side effects but they can not be ignored either.
- Government responses are authoritarian but they will not shoot you if you don't take a vaccine or refuse to comply elsewhere.
Competent humans are fully capable of making reasoned, rational judgments about non-binary choices. The problem is that "our" societies no longer encourage the development of this type of thinking.
I agree; as invididuals we have some capacity for non-binary decision-making. My lion/pig examples were bad because they suggested indivudal level. I was thinking more about problems that manifest themselves only statistically, at population level.
To point 4....Noy yet, they won't shoot you. Just wait.
Try early mulit-drug treatment. Or ivermectin for prophyaxis. Try something new.
Unfortunately the average person is virtually completely innumerate. If you have worked with college students at all recently you will find it's extremely common for undergraduate students to be completely unable to do even basic math (add/subtract/multiply/divide). These are college students, so presumably smarter and more educated than most.
This is, sadly, very true. The number of astonishing things I've seen from the Science and Engineering students is, itself, astonishing.
What are we to make of the student sitting a Master's exam in advanced maths techniques, who typed the following into their calculator "7 x 1 = "?
I personally witnessed this when I was proctoring.
Or the students who will type a list of things to multiply together into their calculator with one of them being zero. (eg 100 x 43 x 34.5 x 0 x 43.65 x 12)
It's weird. My own view is that the overuse and over-reliance on tools like calculators have had a really detrimental effect on our ability to think. I suspect a similar thing is happening with our current societal lust for immediacy and stimulation via screens.
Why would they ask themselves anything? They already know the answer, it's the unvaxxed. That's not the real answer, but it's what they want it to be.
Just thinking ahead....Do you (including myself) realize that in the future, people will believe that Biden's name was actually, Brandon?
Or that his real first name was Effjoe...
🙌 🤣
Oh, Javid, you cunning little magician, you. I almost didn't even notice you feeding data into the whirring shredder as you spoke.
Some days I dream of becoming the next J.K. Rowling, telling the rollicking adventures of Sajid, Jacinda, Tony, Joe, etc...
As one of the people I follow (and enjoy immensely) on Twitter says in her byline, "Looks like only 6 of us paid attention in stats 101." Pretty sure even fewer have ever even heard of our buddy, Pareto!
I know the answer. Well, at least I know the answer someone well-versed in the new vaccine religion will give you: it's because of Delta and because it's so much worse than what we were dealing with last year. And the vaccines also aren't to blame because, well who could have predicted Delta happening?... Anways, I don't know how correct, or how false that assessment is. But could be worth looking into
The feeling that the Pareto Principle (when applied to manifestations of resistance) could come back to bite our overlords arses, is just about the only thing which keeps me going most days tbh