I always remember when I first started in the oilfield. One old supervisor told me something that would hold true for all my working life no matter what job I was doing.
It was this:
3 words - good, quick, cheap.
You can only have 2 of them together at any one time as:
- if it's quick and cheap it won't be good
- if it good and quick it won't be cheap
- if it's good and cheap it won't be quick
You can never have all 3 parameters at the same time.
Best explain I have heard wrt what is a 'live or dead' whackscene. No wonder. On top of all of this, though, is the king of the hill, the concept of the eugenics bioweapon. They knew this would wreck immune systems and slow kill the ones it didn't fast kill. So.....enter the clowns.
Life's had at least 500 000 000 years to reach today's complexity of interactions - let's be generous and say you could simulate this with a computer model getting it 90% equivalent. That's still 50 000 000 years of development missing.
(Yeah I know the simile-metaphor-analogy limps like a biscuit, but still.)
What the boffins are doing (all fields) is like extrapolating a pine forest from a pine needle from an anthill: doable, you'll get good sines pointing the right way, but you'll never be able to determine the number of squrrels in that forest.
(Black Knight-levels of limping here... "I can still bite you!")
This lack of a lab was one of the best restraining bolts for the fuzzy sciences: no lab equals no certainty, just a lot of "it stands to reason", "it looks like it was that way when we started fiddling about" and "that's like just your conclusions, man" paired with a hefty dose of probability and statistics.
Optimization has a lot in common with rolling dice, if you'd believe it. Optmizing a system the way it's done nowadays is akin to creating a game where you pay for extra rolls and/or extra dice, because the system only works if all dice come up fives or sixes (and that's sticking to the normal ones, introduce D4s, D12s, D1000s, and combos plus static add-ons, multipliers, and weighted sequences the way modern tabletop wargames does...oh dear).
Meaning the system works a-okay as long as you can pay for the extra rolls. And then that same system must generate the resources required for extra rolls plus its normal generation/consumtion ration, plus monetary profit minus the other costs of operation.
Which is a very weak system, as all it takes is that one single bad roll to break it. A sturdy system is based on the statistical average with reserves for the bad anomalies and the ability to save and invest against future costs the good anomalies.
Or something, I dunno, been binge-watching the "surströmming challenge"-videos and laughing my glutes off.
imagine a country where out of 10 newborn children 5 will die within 5 years. there is no healthcare to speak of.
comes along a doctor that starts a treatment for a specific disease in newborns that is actually not present in this country. the doctor also tells the people to not feed their children on a diet of just manioc..
subsequently the number of deaths goes down.
conclusion: the treatment also works for those other diseases.
Thanks, I hadn't really thought about it in that way. That our bodies are fighting a synthetic Spike that is not like a virus with another type of Spike.
I always remember when I first started in the oilfield. One old supervisor told me something that would hold true for all my working life no matter what job I was doing.
It was this:
3 words - good, quick, cheap.
You can only have 2 of them together at any one time as:
- if it's quick and cheap it won't be good
- if it good and quick it won't be cheap
- if it's good and cheap it won't be quick
You can never have all 3 parameters at the same time.
Preach it, teach it! We get taught the same here, with this add-on:
If it's in any way run by the state/governement on any level, it's pick one.
Best explain I have heard wrt what is a 'live or dead' whackscene. No wonder. On top of all of this, though, is the king of the hill, the concept of the eugenics bioweapon. They knew this would wreck immune systems and slow kill the ones it didn't fast kill. So.....enter the clowns.
Life's had at least 500 000 000 years to reach today's complexity of interactions - let's be generous and say you could simulate this with a computer model getting it 90% equivalent. That's still 50 000 000 years of development missing.
(Yeah I know the simile-metaphor-analogy limps like a biscuit, but still.)
What the boffins are doing (all fields) is like extrapolating a pine forest from a pine needle from an anthill: doable, you'll get good sines pointing the right way, but you'll never be able to determine the number of squrrels in that forest.
(Black Knight-levels of limping here... "I can still bite you!")
This lack of a lab was one of the best restraining bolts for the fuzzy sciences: no lab equals no certainty, just a lot of "it stands to reason", "it looks like it was that way when we started fiddling about" and "that's like just your conclusions, man" paired with a hefty dose of probability and statistics.
Optimization has a lot in common with rolling dice, if you'd believe it. Optmizing a system the way it's done nowadays is akin to creating a game where you pay for extra rolls and/or extra dice, because the system only works if all dice come up fives or sixes (and that's sticking to the normal ones, introduce D4s, D12s, D1000s, and combos plus static add-ons, multipliers, and weighted sequences the way modern tabletop wargames does...oh dear).
Meaning the system works a-okay as long as you can pay for the extra rolls. And then that same system must generate the resources required for extra rolls plus its normal generation/consumtion ration, plus monetary profit minus the other costs of operation.
Which is a very weak system, as all it takes is that one single bad roll to break it. A sturdy system is based on the statistical average with reserves for the bad anomalies and the ability to save and invest against future costs the good anomalies.
Or something, I dunno, been binge-watching the "surströmming challenge"-videos and laughing my glutes off.
Benn and her partner, Aaby, have a great website. https://www.bandim.org
imagine a country where out of 10 newborn children 5 will die within 5 years. there is no healthcare to speak of.
comes along a doctor that starts a treatment for a specific disease in newborns that is actually not present in this country. the doctor also tells the people to not feed their children on a diet of just manioc..
subsequently the number of deaths goes down.
conclusion: the treatment also works for those other diseases.
really?
i mean REALLY?
I'd say their 'constraints' have been producing safe and effective gloop... to the extent of utter failure.
Thanks, I hadn't really thought about it in that way. That our bodies are fighting a synthetic Spike that is not like a virus with another type of Spike.
Hormesis! It's everywhere! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hormesis