It Isn't Over Until . . .
The ‘internet’ is a lot of fun. In between clips of Japanese penguins walking down the street wearing a backpack (I kid you not1) and how eating mouse testicles improves your libido (I kid you) we can find some genuine dark comedy gold.
The internet ‘experts’ are out in force claiming this represents a major humiliation for Trump and proof that the US have lost in Iran.
If you didn’t spray coffee all over your screen at reading this list, there’s definitely something wrong with your head - get it checked out2.
Hot on the heels of the glorious Dindu Nuffin letter that emerged from Iran’s President a few days ago, here we have another set of ‘negotiating positions’ written by Weewun Evreeffin.
Recall that one of the major criticisms of Trump was that he opened fire before negotiations, which were said to be going well, had finished. These sort of ‘negotiations’? Obviously the Iranian leadership has to fluff itself up a bit - and I use that term in the way that the porn industry uses it, because Iran’s stiffy here is an absurdity3.
Whatever you think Trump’s grasp on reality is (and opinion is sharply divided on the matter) this latest gambit by Iran to maintain appropriate enthusiasm is nothing short of hilariously insane.
Does anyone, anyone, seriously believe Trump saw this list (as written here) and immediately thought “Hallelujah - at last - a workable basis for negotiation”?
It’s a bit like Trump negotiating to build a new skyscraper with the “workable basis” being - no, and you give us all your existing buildings and promise never to build another one.
What’s going on here? I don’t know, and neither does anyone else who isn’t directly involved in the actual negotiations (ignore the various public pronouncements until the dust settles).
What appears4 to be the case is that Trump’s ‘Twitter Diplomacy’ - or whatever the Truth Social version of that is - seems to have had a quite remarkable effect. You see, whilst talking about civilisational endings might be awfully gauche and somewhat beneath the dignity of other inspiring leaders like Starmer, it does seem to have enabled Iran to have snatched defeat from the jaws of defeat.
But let’s give Iran due credit. It’s clear from this list that they have been winning handsomely. They’re just displaying grace and magnanimity in pausing their wanton romp of devastation of US and Israeli forces who are being sent packing with their tails between their legs.
So, given that I don’t think Trump has the intellect of a mollusc (whilst possibly possessing the sensibilities of one), my immediate thought is “What does he need this 2 week pause for?”
What’s the play here?
Other more capable writers have given their opinions on some good strategic reasons for all this posturing so I won’t try to replicate their thinking here, but at this moment in time I don’t think this is ‘all over’ - not by a long way.
Let’s wait until the alternatively-sized lady sings
I wanted to include the line “Got a twitch in your neck ma’am? Go see a neurosurgeon” which is from a live performance of Bobby Darin singing Mack the Knife where he messes up the lyric (he said : How do you like that? I blew the lyric. That’s like Moses forgetting the Ten Commandments) and then embed the song. Weirdly, though, I haven’t been able to find any YouTube link to this classic fluff. I know it exists because I have the recording
Picture the scene: the pizza delivery guy arrives holding the box at waist height for you to open. You open it in delight only to be even more delighted when you see you’ve got extra salami. The off-screen ‘fluffers’ are needed here because trying to stick your member through Pizza Joe’s Meat Feast is something of a passion killer
And, once again, I stress that there is likely to be something of a divergence between stuff on Twitter/Truth Social and what’s really going on
I've been engaged in strategic geopolitical analysis for about 40 years. It's one of my primary interests.
If you're interested in why America is powerful, and why Iran is more powerful than you think it should be, one of the foundational texts is "The Revenge of Geography" by Robert D. Kaplan. I commend it to anybody with an interest in this stuff.
Tl;Dr Countries are powerful because of their geography. If, for example, you can't be invaded, like America, and have good7 opportunities for cheap internal transport of goods and materiel, you'll be powerful. If you have exposed land based flanks and are constantly being invaded over those flanks, like Russia, you'll be paranoid and fearful, and ultimately weak.
That being said, my take is the Iranians have clearly read "The Art of the Deal", and are using Trump's negotiating tactics against him. Ie Submit a huge ambit claim, that disguises what you really hope to achieve..
So, they've submitted their bizarre list of ten demands, with the ultimate goal of still being alive and in power at the end of the war, versus being vaporised before breakfast tomorrow morning.
I don't think it will work out for them. They have a history going back decades of being...how do say...rabid, murderous, untrustworthy dogs. Nobody can or will believe a thing they say.
I expect the vaporisations to continue, and the price of fuel to increase until someone takes charge in Iran who sees reason. Who knows when that will be?
Speaking of vaporisation...Ed Milliband is clearly insane, and I mean that in the most literal sense of the word.. Sticking to the Net Zero plan and not producing fuel from the North Sea, in the face of such radically changed international circumstances
really is quite mad, deranged, unhinged and loony. He's completely lost touch with reality, and will cause massive harm to the country as long as he remains in power. He shouldn't be in a straitjacket, in a padded room.
The Iranians, as usual, appear to have the upper hand...
Base...Balls...